Preview Game 9 – October 31 – at Northwestern

Northwestern was 9 and 4 overall with 3 losses in Big Ten play.  One loss that really smarts was to Indiana.  Northwestern's other two losses came to Michigan State and Ohio State.  On the winning side of the scoreboard, NU posted wins against Syracuse, Duke, Southern Illinois and Iowa to start off their season at 5-0.  The remaining part of the season was up and down, with wins against Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan and Illinois.  

Northwestern did not play Penn State in 2008.  This will be interesting to see how Penn State fairs against an NU team that they have not seen recently.

Northwestern Offense vs. PSU Defense
National Rankings Category	NU Actual	NU Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Scoring Offense	24.38	74		8	14.38	Scoring Defense
Total Offense	358.46	61		8	280.08	Total Defense
Passing Offense	216.69	59		27	186.85	Pass Defense
Passing Efficiency	119.12	77		19	107.79	Pass Efficiency Defense
Rushing Offense	141.77	64		8	93.23	Rushing Defense
Red Zone Offense Pct	.85	35		97	.88	Red Zone Defense
1st Down Offense/Game	20.23	45		9	15.58	1st Down Defense
3rd Down Conversion Pct	46.4	21		15	32.2	3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense
4th Down Conversion Pct	28.6	109		87	54.2	4th Down Conversion Pct Defense
Sacks Allowed/Game	1.69	45		24	2.54	Sacks/Game
Tackles For Loss Allowed	5.85	65		44	46.23	Tackles For Loss/Game

Gone are QB C.J. Bacher and TB Tyrell Sutton.  Bacher led NU in passing (245-408-15) with 17 TDs in 2008.  Sutton was the Wildcat’s number one running back with 922 yards and a 4.8 yard per carry average.  Coach Pat Fitzgerald will look to last year’s backup QB Mike Kafka to step up this season.  Kafka gained experience in 8 games last season and had good statistics.  Kafka was 32 of 46 passes with 2 TDs.  With nearly a 70% completion percentage, Kafka shows great potential.

Sutton will be replaced with a trio of tailbacks, Jr. Stephen Simons, R-Fr. Alex Daniel and So. Jeravin Mathews.  Simmons was the only tailback of the trio with game experience last season.  Simmons played in 10 games and had 62 carries for 189 yards.  That is an unimpressive 2.9 per carry that does not compare well to Sutton’s 4.8 yard average.

Kafka will have to find new targets at wide receiver.  Lane Ross, Eric Peterman and Rasheed Ward were the Wildcats three top receivers in 2008.  All are lost to graduation.  The three played in all 13 games and collectively amassed 170 catches for 1903 yards and 12 TDs.  Not to fear, Northwestern has eight wide receivers in waiting, with five having significant experience.  Seniors Zeke Markshausen, Andrew Brewer, Junior Sidney Stewart and Sophomore Charles Brown received playing time in nine or more games last season.

So how does Northwestern match up to Penn State?  With Penn State’s defensive secondary a big question mark it is difficult to say.  Penn State’s run defense should shut down the NU rushing game.  This should make the Wildcats into a single-dimension team.  Since Penn State has not played NU recently, we will probably see defensive adjustments at half time.

Northwestern Defense vs. PSU Offense
National Rankings Category	NU Actual	NU Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Scoring Defense	20.15	26		11	38.92	Scoring Offense
Total Offense	340.54	49		14	448.92	Total Offense
Pass Defense	214.15	25		37	243.08	Pass Offense
Passing Efficiency Defense	111.83	25		19	145.35	Pass Efficiency
Rushing Defense	126.38	34		17	205.85	Rushing Offense
Red Zone Defense	.79	37		6	.92	Red Zone Offense
1st Down Defense	19.23	66		18	23.08	1st Down Offense/Game
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense	34.7	28		6	52.0	3rd Down Conversion Pct
4th Down Conversion Pct Defense	44.4	46		88	38.5	4th Down Conversion Pct
SacksGame	2.62	18		4	21.00	Sacks Allowed
Tackles For Loss/Game	6.62	29		4	3.85	Tackles For Loss Allowed

Northwestern was statistically average on defense in 2008, except in the scoring defense category.  This is the category that matters most.  Expect Northwestern’s defense to improve this season.

Northwestern’s defensive backfield has safeties Brad Phillips and Brendan Smith and cornerbacks Sherrick McMannis and Jordan Mabin returning.  All have 13 games of experience.  Phillips lead the team in tackles with 56 solo and 53 assists.  The linebacking corps is also relatively intact from 2008.  Prince Kwateng is lost to graduation, however Nate Williams and Quentin Davie return with 12 and 13 games of experience respectively.
The Wildcat’s defensive line has a little more attrition.  DT John Gill and DE Kevin Mims do not return.  Corey Wootton and Corbin Bryant are left to anchor the line.  Wootton and Bryant will team up with Sr. Adam Hahn and So. Vince Brown.  Hahn saw limited action in 2008.  Brown played in 10 games and had 26 total tackles. 

Penn State’s offense matches up nice with NU’s defense. Penn State should be able to score enough points to win, but will not produce a blowout. 

Turnovers - Time of Possession - Penalties
National Rankings Category	NU Actual	NU Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Turnover Margin	-.23	73		25	.54	Turnover Margin
Turnover Gained	25	42		14	16	Turnovers Lost
Turnovers Lost	28	93		58	23	Turnovers Gained
Fumbles Recovered	12	29		49	10	Fumbles Lost
Fumbles Lost	10	49		97	7	Fumbles Recovered
Passes Intercepted	13	54		4	6	Passes had Intercepted
Passed had Intercepted	18	107		26	16	Passes Intercepted
Fewest Penalties/Game	4.69	20		3	3.77	Fewest Penalties/Game
Fewest Yards Penalized/Game	43.62	33		3	31.38	Fewest Yards Penalized/Game
Time of Possession	28:44	97		16	31:44	Time of Possession

Special Teams
National Rankings Category	NU Actual	NU Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Punt Returns	8.30	70		15	5.33	Punt Return Defense
Punt Return Defense	9.60	69		39	10.36	Punt Returns
Net Punting	34.12	75		11	37.86	Net Punting
Kickoff Returns	19.60	97		65	21.26	Kickoff Return Defense
Kickoff Return Defense	18.41	12		10	24.54	Kickoff Returns

Junior Stafan Demos is slated to perform all kicking duties for Northwestern this season with Amondo Villarreal’s graduation.  Demos did not have any field goal attempts in 2008, although Demos punted in all but one punting situation.  Demos had a 39.0 average, and poor coverage brought his net putting stats to 34 yards per punt.  

Kick and punt returns will be in the experienced hands of Brendan Smith, Andrew Brewer, Sherrick McManis and Stephen Simmons.  Simmons led the team in kick returns with 23 and 509 yards in 2008.  Smith handled the majority punt returns with 15 for 118 yards.

Prediction

If Penn State can avoid looking forward to Ohio State and feeling too good about beating a piss-poor scUM team, then Penn State will win. This is purely a mental thing for Penn State.  This will be the only time that Penn State has to play two consecutive games on the road.  At least Evanston is not a hostile venue.  

Northwestern is not a cupcake.  Pat Fitzgerald is a great coach, although he probably does not have the talent to beat Penn State.  This game has to potential to being one the of the closest wins for the Lions all season.

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linksoflondon

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Simmons led the team in kick returns with 23 and 509 yards in 2008. Smith handled the majority punt returns with 15 for 118 yards.

Tuesday 06 October 2009, 17:12

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