Preview Game 8 – October 24 – at THEM

ScUM is coming off a 3-9 season, the worst season in the school’s history. ScUM squeaked out a win against Miami (OH), upset Wisconsin, and beat a very weak Minnesota team.  What is more revealing of scUM’s 2008 season is losing to Toledo and blowout losses against Illinois, Penn State, and tOSU.  The last one particularly hurts THEM.  

The scUM-tOSU game is supposed to be the equivalent of a Big Ten championship game.  It is at least in the minds of scUM and tOSU fans – lots of tradition, pomp and those sorts of things.  If scUM continues to play at their current level, or just breaks into the middle of the Big Ten standings, then that game will become meaningless to tOSU fans.  THEM will become yet another cupcake on tOSU’s schedule.  

The problem at THEM is that Coach DickRod is trying to put square peg into a round hole; meaning he is forcing players into a system that they are not equipped to play.  This isn’t a knock against scUM players that were recruited by Lloyd Carr.  Carr ran a different offense.  DickRod’s spread option may not work until he has full four years of recruiting at scUM.  In the interim, expect an inconsistent offense from THEM.

Greg Robinson, who wrecked Syracuse football, was selected as scUM’s defensive coordinator in the off-season. So scUM’s defensive players can look forward to yet another defensive coordinator.  This means that the defensive players have to unlearn an old defense and learn yet another new defense.  Some moves in football just astound me.  How does Greg Robinson even have a job?  I do not expect great defensive improvement in 2009.

Michigan Offense vs. PSU Defense
National Rankings Category	scUM Actual	scUM Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Scoring Offense	20.25	99		8	14.38	Scoring Defense
Total Offense	290.75	109		8	280.08	Total Defense
Passing Offense	143.17	108		27	186.85	Pass Defense
Passing Efficiency	95.13	112		19	107.79	Pass Efficiency Defense
Rushing Offense	147.58	59		8	93.23	Rushing Defense
Red Zone Offense Pct	.77	82		97	.88	Red Zone Defense
1st Down Offense/Game	15.50	110		9	15.58	1st Down Defense
3rd Down Conversion Pct	27.3	118		15	32.2	3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense
4th Down Conversion Pct	70.0	5		87	54.2	4th Down Conversion Pct Defense
Sacks Allowed/Game	1.83	57		24	2.54	Sacks/Game
Tackles For Loss Allowed	7.75	116		44	46.23	Tackles For Loss/Game

ScUM returns the majority of their offense – all but ½ of a player.  QB Steven Threet split time with Nick Sheridan, making Threet ½ of a player.   Now Threet has split (transferred) from Michigan’s football program.  Penn State saw both Threet and Sheridan last year at Beaver Stadium.  Threet was 9 for 13 for 84 yards.  Sheridan was 3-9 for 5 yards.  Sheridan ended the season, playing in 8 games with a QB efficiency rating of 81.09.  He was 63 of 137 with 5 interceptions and 2 TDs.  He averaged 76.6 yards per game.

For a QB to be effective in DickRod’s offense, he must have experience in the offense.  In that regard, Sheridan has the most experience.  Justin Feagin played in four games, but threw zero passes.  Tate Forcier greenshirted, so he has the experience of one spring.  It will be interesting to see if there is a battle between Sheridan and Forcier for the starting role. I think that throwing a QB into the fire as a freshman is an extremely risky endeavor, despite how much any freshman wants playing time or how talented he is.

Running backs Brandon Minor and Sam McGuffie split duties in 2008.  Last year Minor rushed for 533 yards and McGuffie had 486 yards.  This is actually the highlight of scUM’s offense, with a national ranking of 59th.  Minor will be back, but McGuffie has left (transferred) the program.

Quite simply Michigan does not match up to Penn State’s defense.  

Michigan Defense vs. PSU Offense
National Rankings Category	scUM Actual	scUM Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Scoring Defense	28.92	84		11	38.92	Scoring Offense
Total Offense	366.92	67		14	448.92	Total Offense
Pass Defense	230.00	87		37	243.08	Pass Offense
Passing Efficiency Defense	131.74	79		19	145.35	Pass Efficiency
Rushing Defense	136.92	50		17	205.85	Rushing Offense
Red Zone Defense	.80	45		6	.92	Red Zone Offense
1st Down Defense	17.00	30		18	23.08	1st Down Offense/Game
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense	38.8	60		6	52.0	3rd Down Conversion Pct
4th Down Conversion Pct Defense	33.3	13		88	38.5	4th Down Conversion Pct
SacksGame	2.42	33		4	21.00	Sacks Allowed
Tackles For Loss/Game	6.42	38		4	3.85	Tackles For Loss Allowed

The above table tells the tale of scUM’s defense against Penn State’s offense. Expect similar this year as scUM has a new defensive coordinator that has a horrid track record at Syracuse.  Greg Robinson certainly doesn’t know how to pick talent and he lacks all ability to coach the untalented.  scUM’s defense lacks talent.  Expect no improvement, perhaps regression.

ScUM’s defensive line will need to be rebuilt.  2008 starters, DE Tim Jamison and DTs Will Johnson and Terrance Taylor are lost.  ScUM has a number of juniors and seniors that will be competing for starting positions on the defensive line. 

At linebacker, scUM has their two main pile jumpers back.  Obi Ezeh (59 solo/39 assts) and Jonas Mouton (36 solo/40 assts).  These are a rather weak set of statistics for Ezeh and Mouton.  Safety Stevie Brown and CB Donovan Warren are the two returning defensive backs.  Brown was forth on the team in tackles and had two picks.  Warren was sixth with one INT.

ScUM has a long way to go on defense to get their program back into the top of the Big Ten.  Big Ten football is about defense.  This isn’t the BigLeast, and certainly not the Big 12 where defense is non-existent.  DickRod (from the BigLeast) and GRob (from the BigLeast) do not have what it takes move scUM from 84th in scoring defense to a spot that is even average.  Points of comparison are Penn State, Ohio State and Iowa – all top teams in Div-1 football in defense.

Turnovers - Time of Possession - Penalties
National Rankings Category	scUM Actual	scUM Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Turnover Margin	-.83	104		25	.54	Turnover Margin
Turnover Gained	20	77		14	16	Turnovers Lost
Turnovers Lost	30	104		58	23	Turnovers Gained
Fumbles Recovered	11	38		49	10	Fumbles Lost
Fumbles Lost	18	114		97	7	Fumbles Recovered
Passes Intercepted	9	85		4	6	Passes had Intercepted
Passed had Intercepted	12	55		26	16	Passes Intercepted
Fewest Penalties/Game	4.75	24		3	3.77	Fewest Penalties/Game
Fewest Yards Penalized/Game	41.67	22		3	31.38	Fewest Yards Penalized/Game
Time of Possession	30:00	66		16	31:44	Time of Possession

Special Teams
National Rankings Category	scUM Actual	scUM Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Punt Returns	8.62	64		15	5.33	Punt Return Defense
Punt Return Defense	7.86	48		39	10.36	Punt Returns
Net Punting	39.34	5		11	37.86	Net Punting
Kickoff Returns	21.44	56		65	21.26	Kickoff Return Defense
Kickoff Return Defense	20.46	49		10	24.54	Kickoff Returns

The highlight of the entire scUM season in 2008 was their punting game.  It probably is because they had so much in-game experience. They were ranked 5th in the nation in net punting compared to PSU’s 11th. This is essentially a push statistic wise.  The primary difference is that PSU does not punt often, since they score so often.  
ScUM has lost their starting field goal kicker, K.C. Lopata.  Lopata was scUM’s second leading scorer in 2008.  No other kicker received game experience in 2008.

Prediction
Penn State has to get that whore-monkey (Ann Arbor) off their back and win on the road this year.  This is purely a mental thing for PSU.  After last season, the entire win on the road problem is most likely gone.

It is fairly clear that scUM has a long way to go in improving their team.  (84th in scoring defense, 99th in scoring offense)  It will be difficult, if not impossible for scUM to improve to an even respectable team in 2009.  

This will be win number eight for PSU.  Hopefully it will be a fully embarrassing loss for DickRod.  Big Ten football needs a strong team at THEM.  DickRod is the biggest barrier to that happening and any embarrassing loss is one step closer to THEM getting a real college football coach.

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It is fairly clear that scUM has a long way to go in improving their team. (84th in scoring defense, 99th in scoring offense) It will be difficult, if not impossible for scUM to improve to an even respectable team in 2009.

Tuesday 06 October 2009, 17:16

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