Preview Game 5 – October 3 – at Illinois

Penn State will travel to Illinois after four home games.  I’m sure all of the talk on the forums will be about Penn State’s inconsistent road performances over the years.  The Sad Jacks will ignore recent successes and bring up last year’s Iowa game as an example.  This is all interesting conversation, but when the game is played it will be about the best team on the field.  

Illinois will be coming into the game with a 1-2 record, losing to Ohio State and Missouri on the road.  The Illini’s sole win will be against Illinois State (Div 1-AA).  Penn State should be clicking on all cylinders with a 4-0 record, and plenty of time to work the kinks out of the new offensive line and defensive backfield. 

Illinois' 2008 Season in Review

Illinois had one quality win in 2008; that was against Iowa.  Losing to directional Michigan from the MAC is really ugly, and giving up 21 points to Eastern Illinois really showed the state of Illinois' defense in 2008.  While Ron Zook was seen weekly on BTN's The Journey with his chin held high, it was rather obvious that there is was a lack of discipline in the Illinois football program.  That lack of discipline shows in inconsistent results and overall a losing season.  

Illinois Offense vs. PSU Defense
National Rankings Category	ILL Actual	ILL Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Scoring Offense	28.67	40		8	14.38	Scoring Defense
Total Offense	438.83	19		8	280.08	Total Defense
Passing Offense	269.33	34		27	186.85	Pass Defense
Passing Efficiency	136.11	34		19	107.79	Pass Efficiency Defense
Rushing Offense	169.50	38		8	93.23	Rushing Defense
Red Zone Offense Pct	.82	58		97	.88	Red Zone Defense
1st Down Offense/Game	21.42	30		9	15.58	1st Down Defense
3rd Down Conversion Pct	41.4	45		15	32.2	3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense
4th Down Conversion Pct	42.9	41		87	54.2	4th Down Conversion Pct Defense
Sacks Allowed/Game	2.08	71		24	2.54	Sacks/Game
Tackles For Loss Allowed	6.42	88		44	46.23	Tackles For Loss/Game

When I think about Illinois football, I think Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn. That’s about bit actually.  Illinois does have some experience at running back, with Daniel Drufrene returning. But Drufrene will not match well with this year’s rush defense, particularly when the Illini are rebuilding their offensive line.

All centers in the three-deep roster from last year are gone.  Illinois also loses a guard and tackle to graduation.  It wasn’t like Illinois had a great offensive line to begin with.  They were 71st in the nation in allowing sacks, and 88th in allowing tackles for a loss.  Expect to hear about Juice Williams again this year, but this time it will be about picking turf from his helmet from being sacked so often. 

Applying defensive pressure on Williams, and playing man-to-man against Illinois wide receivers right off the line will result in sacks and turnovers.

Illinois plays Ohio State the week prior to Penn State.  Ohio State is a physical team, and teams facing them feel the pain into their next game.  Last season, all teams lost their games after playing Ohio State with the exception of teams playing Indiana or Michigan (Remember, scUM was pathetic last year).  This is the x-factor in this year’s matchup. 

Illinois Defense vs. PSU Offense
National Rankings Category	ILL Actual	ILL Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Scoring Defense	26.58	67		11	38.92	Scoring Offense
Total Offense	350.33	56		14	448.92	Total Offense
Pass Defense	197.42	49		37	243.08	Pass Offense
Passing Efficiency Defense	130.55	71		19	145.35	Pass Efficiency
Rushing Defense	152.92	77		17	205.85	Rushing Offense
Red Zone Defense	.82	61		6	.92	Red Zone Offense
1st Down Defense	18.75	55		18	23.08	1st Down Offense/Game
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense	37.2	47		6	52.0	3rd Down Conversion Pct
4th Down Conversion Pct Defense	42.9	41		88	38.5	4th Down Conversion Pct
SacksGame	2.67	17		4	21.00	Sacks Allowed
Tackles For Loss/Game	7.00	17		4	3.85	Tackles For Loss Allowed

Let’s be honest about Illinois defense.  They are not that good.  Giving up 350 yards and nearly 27 points per game is pretty darn average.  If Illinois is going to hurt any team this year, it will be on the offensive side of the ball. 

Illinois loses CB Vontae Davis to the NFL draft.  This is a huge loss and most folks will probably overlook it before the season begins.  But by week 5, Illinois’ secondary will have been burnt multiple times and the secret will be out.  CB Dere Hicks returns as a three year starter.  Hicks is the anchor to the Illini backfield.  During spring practice, coach Ron Zook moved a number of players around in the defensive backfield, looking for a working combination.

The Illini linebacker corps loses Brit Miller, and the roster is filled with redshirt freshmen and sophomores.  Martez Wilson and Dustin Jefferson are the only juniors at LB. There are no seniors.  Wilson is the most experienced linebackers with seven starts last year.  He recorded three solo tackles against Penn State in 2008. 

Illinois defensive line is also in bad shape.  The d-line loses three of four starters.  The sole returning starter is Doug Pilcher at defensive end.  Pilcher played in 12 games with 10 solo tackles and 11 assists in 2008.

The assessment for the Illini defense is simple: It’s a rebuilding year.

Turnovers - Time of Possession - Penalties
National Rankings Category	ILL Actual	ILL Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Turnover Margin	-.50	89		25	.54	Turnover Margin
Turnover Gained	20	77		14	16	Turnovers Lost
Turnovers Lost	26	82		58	23	Turnovers Gained
Fumbles Recovered	14	15		49	10	Fumbles Lost
Fumbles Lost	10	49		97	7	Fumbles Recovered
Passes Intercepted	6	113		4	6	Passes had Intercepted
Passed had Intercepted	16	95		26	16	Passes Intercepted
Fewest Penalties/Game	5.50	49		3	3.77	Fewest Penalties/Game
Fewest Yards Penalized/Game	51.00	66		3	31.38	Fewest Yards Penalized/Game
Time of Possession	29:21	79		16	31:44	Time of Possession

Special Teams
National Rankings Category	ILL Actual	ILL Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Punt Returns	6.50	94		15	5.33	Punt Return Defense
Punt Return Defense	10.92	88		39	10.36	Punt Returns
Net Punting	31.64	113		11	37.86	Net Punting
Kickoff Returns	21.04	63		65	21.26	Kickoff Return Defense
Kickoff Return Defense	23.55	99		10	24.54	Kickoff Returns

While Penn State is replacing their kicker this year, State has two sound kickers in the wings.  The Illini return all specialists from last year.  Given the number of PSU helmets in the above table, PSU is clearly the favorite on special teams.

Confident Predictions

1.    Penn State shuts down the Illini rushing game
2.    Penn State has one of its best games rushing of the season
3.    The Penn State defensive backfield gels and plays aggressively
4.    Juice Williams is sacked at least 3 times
5.    Benn is held to under five receptions – all under 15 yards

Penn State wins this one through clock control and undisciplined Illini mistakes

Comments

linksoflondon

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Illinois defensive line is also in bad shape. The d-line loses three of four starters. The sole returning starter is Doug Pilcher at defensive end. Pilcher played in 12 games with 10 solo tackles and 11 assists in 2008.

Tuesday 06 October 2009, 17:15

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