Preview Game 4 – September 26 – Iowa at Home

After three cupcakes in a row Penn State will meet the Iowa Hawkeyes in their first Big Ten game of the season.  Last year, Iowa defeated Penn State by kicking a field goal with one second remaining in the game.  Final score: Iowa 24, Penn State 23.  This year’s matchup will be under the lights at Beaver Stadium with an 8:00 p.m. kickoff.  This definitely sounds like a potential whiteout situation.

Iowa traditionally plays Penn State well.  This year's game should be no different, particularly since Iowa has moved up into the upper-tier of competition in the Big Ten.

Before continuing with the preview, I'd like to take a moment and recognize Iowa for a very successful season in 2008 and for being the only team to represent the Big Ten in a winning way in post season play.  Thank you, Iowa.

Iowa's 2008 Season in Review

Iowa was 9-4 in 2008, with losses to sPitt, Northwestern, Michigan State and Illinois.  While Iowa won against Penn State, (massive rationalization time) QB Daryll Clark was recovering from a concussion suffered in the OSU game.  Clark was 9 for 23 for a season low of 86 yards.  Clark averages 209 yards per games excluding Iowa.  This is perhaps the biggest reason for Penn State’s loss, and has little to do with the quality of play by the team.  In other words, it was purely a coaching error.

Besides, Iowa’s signature win against PSU, Iowa’s wins on the regular season were against less than stellar teams (Maine (I-AA), Florida Int’l (5-7), Iowa State (2-10), Indiana (3-9), Wisconsin (7-6), and Minnesota (7-6)). 

Iowa Offense vs. PSU Defense
National Rankings Category	UI Actual	UI Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Scoring Offense	30.31	33		8	14.38	Scoring Defense
Total Offense	370.38	53		8	280.08	Total Defense
Passing Offense	181.69	90		27	186.85	Pass Defense
Passing Efficiency	130.03	46		19	107.79	Pass Efficiency Defense
Rushing Offense	188.69	26		8	93.23	Rushing Defense
Red Zone Offense Pct	.84	49		97	.88	Red Zone Defense
1st Down Offense/Game	20.69	37		9	15.58	1st Down Defense
3rd Down Conversion Pct	40.9	49		15	32.2	3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense
4th Down Conversion Pct	50.0	47		87	54.2	4th Down Conversion Pct Defense
Sacks Allowed/Game	2.08	71		24	2.54	Sacks/Game
Tackles For Loss Allowed	5.21	41		44	46.23	Tackles For Loss/Game

Iowa tailback, Shonn Green has gone to the pros.  In last year’s game, Green gained 117 yards against Penn State’s 8th ranked rushing defense.  Green’s likely replacement is Jewel Hampton, who played in 13 games in 2008 with 91 carries for 478 yards and 7 TDs.  

Ricky Stanzi returns as Iowa’s QB.  Stanzi started 11 games in ’08 and had a QB efficiency rating of 134.84.  Iowa has a quality offense and returns with experience.  Junior WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos returns after leading Iowa in receiving with 44 passes for 639 yards and three touchdowns.  Iowa’s offense was very balanced last season with 2,453 rushing yards and 2,362 passing yards.

Iowa Defense vs. PSU Offense
National Rankings Category	UI Actual	UI Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Scoring Defense	13.00	5		11	38.92	Scoring Offense
Total Offense	291.31	12		14	448.92	Total Offense
Pass Defense	197.31	47		37	243.08	Pass Offense
Passing Efficiency Defense	98.32	5		19	145.35	Pass Efficiency
Rushing Defense	94	9		17	205.85	Rushing Offense
Red Zone Defense	.76	19		6	.92	Red Zone Offense
1st Down Defense	16.54	21		18	23.08	1st Down Offense/Game
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense	34.5	27		6	52.0	3rd Down Conversion Pct
4th Down Conversion Pct Defense	56.3	93		88	38.5	4th Down Conversion Pct
SacksGame	1.38	96		4	21.00	Sacks Allowed
Tackles For Loss/Game	5.23	80		4	3.85	Tackles For Loss Allowed

Iowa’s defense was one of the best in the Big Ten, and for that matter, in the nation in 2008.  With national rankings of 5th in scoring defense and 12th in total defense Iowa as down-right stingy.  However, Iowa has lost two of the best tackles on the defensive line to graduation; Mitch King and Matt Kroul.  At defensive end, Iowa returns Adrain Clayborn (11 games) and Christian Ballard (13 games).

Iowa lost no linebackers to graduation and only one defensive back;  Bradley Fletcher (60 tackles/3 INTs).  Overall, Iowa returns a stable defense.  

Turnovers - Time of Possession - Penalties
National Rankings Category	UI Actual	UI Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Turnover Margin	.62	22		25	.54	Turnover Margin
Turnover Gained	32	10		14	16	Turnovers Lost
Turnovers Lost	24	64		58	23	Turnovers Gained
Fumbles Recovered	9	69		49	10	Fumbles Lost
Fumbles Lost	13	87		97	7	Fumbles Recovered
Passes Intercepted	23	4		4	6	Passes had Intercepted
Passed had Intercepted	11	42		26	16	Passes Intercepted
Fewest Penalties/Game	4.08	6		3	3.77	Fewest Penalties/Game
Fewest Yards Penalized/Game	34.31	5		3	31.38	Fewest Yards Penalized/Game
Time of Possession	31:31	21		16	31:44	Time of Possession

Special Teams
National Rankings Category	UI Actual	UI Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Punt Returns	10.07	43		15	5.33	Punt Return Defense
Punt Return Defense	5.00	6		39	10.36	Punt Returns
Net Punting	37.02	26		11	37.86	Net Punting
Kickoff Returns	20.46	75		65	21.26	Kickoff Return Defense
Kickoff Return Defense	21.98	82		10	24.54	Kickoff Returns

Iowa’s special teams are rather stable, only losing punt returner, Andy Brodell.  Overall, Penn State outclasses Iowa in special teams.

Fearless Prediction

Whiteout, Under the Lights, 110,000 lunatic fans, Revenge, and hopefully a healthy quarterback …  this game has the makings of being a great game.  But do not expect a blowout.  Penn State and Iowa have traditionally played close games.  And for some reason, certain teams match up well. Iowa and Penn State are two such teams.  My fearless prediction is Penn State 27 – Iowa 24.   

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Iowa lost no linebackers to graduation and only one defensive back; Bradley Fletcher (60 tackles/3 INTs). Overall, Iowa returns a stable defense.

Tuesday 06 October 2009, 17:13

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