It should be noted that this game was scheduled when Syracuse was substantially more competitive (10-2 season).   It gives me no pride or joy that Penn State is playing a cupcake. However, my honesty requires me to evaluate the opponent for what they are. You may find this preview harsher than my upcoming Eastern Illinois preview, but there is a certain level of expectation that is aligned to BCS teams (Syracuse) and FCS teams (EIU).

While Robinson was finally fired, it doesn’t mean that Penn State won’t encounter him again. Robinson is the new defensive coordinator at Michigan.  I’ll save more on that tidbit when I get to the Michigan preview.

Syracuse's 2008 Season in Review

The highlight for Syracuse’s 2008 campaign was beating Notre Dame in South Bend. I certainly enjoyed it. There are few teams that I dislike more than Syracuse, and Notre Dame is one of them.

SU had two other wins in 2008, one against Northeastern and another against Louisville. I didn’t realize Northeastern had a football team. Apparently they don’t. As for Louisville, well, they are bottom dwellers with SU in the Big Least.

Syracuse also faced Penn State in head-to-head competition. Penn State destroyed Syracuse in 2008 55-13 in the rinky-dink Carrier Dome filled with Penn State fans. This year there will be 108,000+ Penn State fans providing Syracuse with a true deafening experience.

Syracyse Offense vs. PSU Defense
National Rankings Category	SU Actual	SU Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Scoring Offense	18.08	108		8	14.38	Scoring Defense
Total Offense	270.17	114		8	280.08	Total Defense
Passing Offense	121.50	113		27	186.85	Pass Defense
Passing Efficiency	94.95	113		19	107.79	Pass Efficiency Defense
Rushing Offense	148.67	55		8	93.23	Rushing Defense
Red Zone Offense Pct	.91	8		97	.88	Red Zone Defense
1st Down Offense/Game	13.67	118		9	15.58	1st Down Defense
3rd Down Conversion Pct	28.9	115		15	32.2	3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense
4th Down Conversion Pct	40.0	82		87	54.2	4th Down Conversion Pct Defense
Sacks Allowed/Game	2.42	98		24	2.54	Sacks/Game
Tackles For Loss Allowed	4.34	14		44	46.23	Tackles For Loss/Game

Syracuse scored against Penn State twice in the first half in last year’s match – two 44 yard field goals. In their best drive of the second half (59-yards), Syracuse scored a TD on an 11 yard pass. Overall, SU had a total of 8 first downs on the day.

Syracuse Defense vs. PSU Offense
National Rankings Category	SU Actual	SU Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Scoring Defense	32.67	101		11	38.92	Scoring Offense
Total Offense	414.50	101		14	448.92	Total Offense
Pass Defense	225.08	83		37	243.08	Pass Offense
Passing Efficiency Defense	141.12	101		19	145.35	Pass Efficiency
Rushing Defense	189.42	101		17	205.85	Rushing Offense
Red Zone Defense	.91	108		6	.92	Red Zone Offense
1st Down Defense	22.50	104		18	23.08	1st Down Offense/Game
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense	51.2	117		6	52.0	3rd Down Conversion Pct
4th Down Conversion Pct Defense	81.3	116		88	38.5	4th Down Conversion Pct
SacksGame	1.33	100		4	21.00	Sacks Allowed
Tackles For Loss/Game	4.67	104		4	3.85	Tackles For Loss Allowed

Cupcake number two will provide another week of practice for Penn State’s inexperienced offensive line as they prepare for conference play in week four of the season. Despite PSU’s offensive line's inexperience, this is clearly a mismatch between SU and PSU. Penn State’s offensive line has experience, just not together. They are high quality, high caliber linemen that simply need some reps together.

Turnovers - Time of Possession - Penalties
National Rankings Category	SU Actual	SU Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Turnover Margin	-.08	67		25	.54	Turnover Margin
Turnover Gained	16	104		14	16	Turnovers Lost
Turnovers Lost	17	18		58	23	Turnovers Gained
Fumbles Recovered	8	84		49	10	Fumbles Lost
Fumbles Lost	9	37		97	7	Fumbles Recovered
Passes Intercepted	8	98		4	6	Passes had Intercepted
Passed had Intercepted	8	13		26	16	Passes Intercepted
Fewest Penalties/Game	4.50	14		3	3.77	Fewest Penalties/Game
Fewest Yards Penalized/Game	38.33	14		3	31.38	Fewest Yards Penalized/Game
Time of Possession	27:15	112		16	31:44	Time of Possession

Special Teams
National Rankings Category	SU Actual	SU Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Punt Returns	4.45	114		15	5.33	Punt Return Defense
Punt Return Defense	10.58	83		39	10.36	Punt Returns
Net Punting	37.42	22		11	37.86	Net Punting
Kickoff Returns	22.04	42		65	21.26	Kickoff Return Defense
Kickoff Return Defense	24.91	108		10	24.54	Kickoff Returns

Special teams are another area that Syracuse needs to address. As it stands, Syracuse will continue to have poor field position making it difficult to score. The inverse is true for Penn State. Just eyeing last year statistics, you would think a coach would zero in on the 108^th and 83^rd rankings for kickoff and punt return defense. Penn State should be spending some additional time on kick/punt returns leading into this game. Syracuse will be busy working on the fundamentals of their offense and defense. Given the attrition that has occurred at SU, something has to give. The vast majority of play isn’t on special teams, so SU has to dedicate their remaining players to the majority of the game. SU can’t expect to play their best players on every down and also special teams. Their weaker players will be on special teams – PSU needs to capitalize.

Iowa is the fourth game on the schedule. This means two more weeks to get the offensive line in shape. I expect to see the first string to play the vast majority of the game to gain experience and game conditioning. This means that Penn State should be able to run at will throughout the game. Another year of experience for Royster and Green and these numbers should go up.  Last year, Evan Royster ran for 104 yards on only 13 carries. Even if Carter and Beachum come into the game late, they should be able to run up some yards. 

It isn’t talked about much, but very quietly, Penn State has amassed a stable of tailbacks that all could start on most teams. When you have running game balanced by passing, you end up with high scores against cupcakes.

Syracuse is the week two cupcake. My prediction is Syracuse will lose worse than last year. Penn State is capable of scoring more than 60 points – it will be difficult not to score that many points. The only way that this won’t happen is if JoePa goes conservative on offense in the second half.

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