This is the fourth meeting of Akron and PSU. All games have been at Beaver Stadium. Penn State leads the series 3-0. The three prior meetings:

9/2/2006 – Akron (5-7) at Penn State (9-4) 34-16 9/4/2004 – Akron (6-5) at Penn State (4-7) 48-10 9/4/1999 – Akron (7-4) at Penn State (10-3) 70-24

I remember the last meeting of the Lions and the Roos in 2006. Penn State was coming off an 11-1 Season and Anthony Morelli was to lead State in 2006. In the first game of the year, the remains of hurricane Ernesto just came through, and there were questions about the defense, even talk of running a 3-4 defensive front. Akron was able to move the ball on State, and while the margin of victory was more than double, I left the stadium dissatisfied. Penn State should have scored many more points and kept the defense off the field longer. But as we found out that year, Penn State’s offense was not explosive. 

Penn State should be much more powerful this year against Akron than in 2006. It does not look like that Akron has made any strides in improving. After going 7-6 in 2005, the Zips have had three straight losing seasons (5-7, 4-8, & 5-7). Last season the Zips lost to Temple in their final game. Temple scored three unanswered touchdowns to win 27-6. There is not much momentum for the Zips. 

While there isn’t much momentum for the Zips, they will come into Beaver Stadium prepared. They did in 2006 and they were not intimidated by the crowd. Penn State needs to shut the Zips down early and destroy any hope of a win. If this happens, Penn State will run away with a win against their first cupcake opponent. 

I honestly won’t feel bad if Penn State rolls up the score. Akron agreed to the game, they get cash on their end of the bargain. Penn State needs to move up in the polls early in the season. State cannot afford a lackluster performance against a second rate team in a third rate conference. It will definitely count against Penn State.  

A game like this should be about establishing fundamentals and statistics. The key statistic for this game is time of possession. Penn State needs to hold on the ball for more than 35 minutes. This will keep the defense off the field, and when they are on the field, they should be producing three and outs.  

The other element of Penn State’s game that needs to be established will be offensive line play. Akron does not do a good job of pressuring quarterbacks. This is an ideal time to break in a new line and establish fundamentals and rhythm. Penn State has the talent for a great offensive line; it is simply a matter of having time playing together as a team. Time of possession is directly linked to offensive line play. Open holes for rushing and protecting the quarterback in passing situations keeps the clock ticking. 

Akron’s 2008 Season in Review

Games against teams with winning records: The Roos played a total of four teams with a winning record and lost to all four. 

Games against teams with losing records: The Zips beat Syracuse, Army, Kent St. Eastern Michigan and Toledo – all of which had losing records.  

Sagarin Football Ratings ranked Akron at the end of the 2008 regular season at 94. Sagarin records for opponents that Akron beat: 

This basically puts Akron at the bottom of FBS football.

Akron Offense vs. PSU Defense
National Rankings Category	UA Actual	UA Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Scoring Offense	30.00	36		8	14.38	Scoring Defense
Total Offense	396.67	40		8	280.08	Total Defense
Passing Offense	231.50	46		27	186.85	Pass Defense
Passing Efficiency	124.57	62		19	107.79	Pass Efficiency Defense
Rushing Offense	165.17	45		8	93.23	Rushing Defense
Red Zone Offense Pct	.81	66		97	.88	Red Zone Defense
1st Down Offense/Game	21.25	31		9	15.58	1st Down Defense
3rd Down Conversion Pct	40.6	51		15	32.2	3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense
4th Down Conversion Pct	61.1	26		87	54.2	4th Down Conversion Pct Defense
Sacks Allowed/Game	1.50	33		24	2.54	Sacks/Game
Tackles For Loss Allowed	4.67	20		44	46.23	Tackles For Loss/Game

Akron enters the 2009 season with a fairly stable offensive line. The only loss to graduation on the line was right tackle Chris Kemme. Akron runs a balanced offense (435 Rush/404 Pass in ‘08) and is fairly stingy in giving up sacks and tackles for a loss (33^rd and 20^th in the nation respectively).   However, there is greater attrition at skill positions. The Roos rushing game will miss Dennis Kennedy who was responsible for 1321 yards of Akron’s total rushing game of 1982 yards. Overall, returning ball carriers contributed a total of 332 yards and 4 TDs last season.  

The receiving corps is in similar shape. Akron lost seven receivers to graduation who contributed 13 TDs on the year. Wideout Derwyn Bowser returns after leading Akron in receiving yards with 785 and 4 TDs. 

Akron’s senior QB, Chris Jacquemain, has two years of experience. As a sophomore in 2007 (154 of 275 attempts for 1624 yds, 11 TDs, 10 INTs), Jacquemain shared QB responsibilities with Carlton Jackson and played in 11 of 12 games. Last season Jacquemain (231 of 399 attempts for 2,748 yards, 20 TDs, 14 INTs) was the sole QB for Akron.  

Penn State’s challenge will be to contain the Jacquemain-Bowser combination while breaking in a new defensive backfield. It appears that State’s defensive line will not miss a beat and will continue to be very stingy in rushing yards. Success on defense will come through pressuring Jacquemain and forcing passing errors. 

Akron Defense vs. PSU Offense
National Rankings Category	UA Actual	UA Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Scoring Defense	31.25	95		11	38.92	Scoring Offense
Total Offense	397.58	90		14	448.92	Total Offense
Pass Defense	210.42	61		37	243.08	Pass Offense
Passing Efficiency Defense	142.12	104		19	145.35	Pass Efficiency
Rushing Defense	187.17	104		17	205.85	Rushing Offense
Red Zone Defense	.79	37		6	.92	Red Zone Offense
1st Down Defense	22.42	103		18	23.08	1st Down Offense/Game
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense	45.0	97		6	52.0	3rd Down Conversion Pct
4th Down Conversion Pct Defense	65.0	106		88	38.5	4th Down Conversion Pct
SacksGame	.92	115		4	21.00	Sacks Allowed
Tackles For Loss/Game	4.75	100		4	3.85	Tackles For Loss Allowed

Penn State has lost three of five starting offensive linemen. This may be a problem if Penn State was playing Ohio State in the first game of the season, but that isn’t the case. Akron is the first game of the season. Akron has greater experience gap on defense than Penn State has on offense. The Zips lost six of eleven starters on defense this year. Key among the losses is NT Eric Lively and LB Kevin Grant which produced five of the Zips eleven sacks in 2008.  

The Zips run a 3-4 defense that rarely pressured opposing offenses in 2008. Akron was ranked 114^th in the nation in sacks and 99^th in tackles for a loss in 2008. While juniors Shawn Lemon and Almondo Sewell return on the defensive line, the Zips lost three of four starting linebackers and two starting cornerbacks. With pass efficiency defense and rushing defense rankings at 104^th and 100^th respectively, the Zips need radical improvement to withstand Penn State’s offensive attack. 

Penn State has a lot to prove on offensive line and in their receiving corps. Akron will not be the perfect test, but a warm-up game for the line to gain experience. Two things to note in this game is PSU’s ability to buy time for the passing game and opening holes for the running game. Akron will be one of the few 3-4 defenses that State will face this year which presents unusual alignments for run blocking. Given that Akron is breaking in new cornerbacks, coverage sacks and hurries should be at a minimum. This is an ideal setup to give PSU’s new receiving corps some confidence. 

Turnovers - Time of Possession - Penalties
National Rankings Category	UA Actual	UA Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Turnover Margin	.50	28		25	.54	Turnover Margin
Turnover Gained	26	36		14	16	Turnovers Lost
Turnovers Lost	20	34		58	23	Turnovers Gained
Fumbles Recovered	17	5		49	10	Fumbles Lost
Fumbles Lost	6	10		97	7	Fumbles Recovered
Passes Intercepted	.9	85		4	6	Passes had Intercepted
Passed had Intercepted	14	76		26	16	Passes Intercepted
Fewest Penalties/Game	5.50	49		3	3.77	Fewest Penalties/Game
Fewest Yards Penalized/Game	46.50	48		3	31.38	Fewest Yards Penalized/Game
Time of Possession	30:03	65		16	31:44	Time of Possession

Akron was a fairly disciplined team in 2008. While Penn State leads in most categories above, Akron is not all that bad when it comes to ToP and penalties. Penn State needs improvement in the turnover categories, which in turn will increase their ToP stats. The weakest stats for Akron are in pass interceptions; on defense and offense. A good portion of Akron’s defensive backfield is new and they need to improve in the number of pass interceptions. QB Chris Jacquemain needs to reduce his errors in throwing more than one INT per game.  

Special Teams
National Rankings Category	UA Actual	UA Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Punt Returns	8.33	68		15	5.33	Punt Return Defense
Punt Return Defense	9.19	64		39	10.36	Punt Returns
Net Punting	32.81	101		11	37.86	Net Punting
Kickoff Returns	21.71	51		65	21.26	Kickoff Return Defense
Kickoff Return Defense	22.19	86		10	24.54	Kickoff Returns

Special teams for Penn State are often a matter of finding the right relationship of talented players and the amount of rest that they have in a game. Quite simply, you can’t have your best players on the field all the time. It is pretty clear that last year State was breaking in some new players on kickoff defense.

Akron’s greatest special team weakness returns for his senior year. Punter John Stec was partly responsible for Akron’s dismal 101^st ranking in net punting of 32.81 yards. Stec averaged 37.13 yards per punt in 2008.   This is worse than Penn State’s net punting. Jeremy Boone will punt for State again this year and looks to improve his punting back to the level of being the best in the Big 10.  

Prediction or Simply a Wild-Ass Guess

Realistically, Penn State will win this game by a significant margin. It is quite possible for Penn State to score 50 points in this game. It is also possible, if Akron produces a large number of errors that the score will be much higher.   A fumble here, an interception there is another 14 to 21 points that can be rapidly scored.  

Of course, there is the conservative coaching factor. If JoePa goes conservative in 2^nd half after taking a lead the game may appear to be much closer on paper, and will not be very interesting to watch. 

I am hoping the offensive line has the opportunity to play deep into the game. The more experience they have at this point of the season the better it will be for Penn State when it comes to conference play.

Comments

linksoflondon

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I know as the game approaches, my anticipation will build, and so will my confidence – probably to the point of over confidence. Not so much in winning, but how Penn State will win. More than likely I will leave the stadium disappointed in how Penn State won.

Tuesday 06 October 2009, 17:21

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