Preview Game 12 – November 21 – at Michigan State

Michigan State is the best football team in the state of Michigan.  They are coming off a 9-4 season, with losses to Cal, Ohio State, and Penn State in the regular season.  Coach Mark Dantonio is doing a fabulous job of recruiting, particularly in Michigan.  I truly think that things are looking up for MSU.  However, there is the reality of their play against Penn State.

In the final game of the season, for the Land Grant Trophy, (does anyone really care about that?)  MSU allowed 557 total offensive yards.  Penn State won 49-18. 

Michigan State Offense vs. PSU Defense
National Rankings Category	MSU Actual	MSU Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Scoring Offense	25.08	62		8	14.38	Scoring Defense
Total Offense	343.46	74		8	280.08	Total Defense
Passing Offense	213.31	62		27	186.85	Pass Defense
Passing Efficiency	116.06	85		19	107.79	Pass Efficiency Defense
Rushing Offense	130.15	77		8	93.23	Rushing Defense
Red Zone Offense Pct	.85	35		97	.88	Red Zone Defense
1st Down Offense/Game	18.77	63		9	15.58	1st Down Defense
3rd Down Conversion Pct	34.6	98		15	32.2	3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense
4th Down Conversion Pct	60.0	28		87	54.2	4th Down Conversion Pct Defense
Sacks Allowed/Game	1.85	60		24	2.54	Sacks/Game
Tackles For Loss Allowed	5.31	41		44	46.23	Tackles For Loss/Game

MSU’s offense lost RB Javon Ringer and QB Brain Hoyer this year.  There is a battle for both the QB and RB positions going into August camp.  Ringer accounted for 1,637 of 1,692 net yards rushing last year.  In essence, there wasn’t a second string running back at MSU. 

Hoyer had 353 of 399 pass attempts thrown by MSU, although Kirk Cousins saw late game play at Penn State against the scrubs.  Cousins came in the game after Penn State posted 49 points to MSU’s 10.  Cousins was 7 for 9 with 1 TD.  It appears that Cousins and Keith Nichol will be platooned at QB in the early part of the season until a leader emerges.

At this point it is anyone’s guess who will be the starting tailback for MSU. Like the QB position, there will be a platoon.  The platoon consists of Larry Caper, Ashton Leggett, Edwin Baker, and Caulton Ray.  But does it really matter who emerges as the “go-to” RB?  Javon Ringer, the best rusher for MSU in years was held to 42 yards with a 2.5 yard average against PSU.  Penn State shows all signs of having an even improved rush defense in 2009.  This will make MSU into a single-dimensional team that will have to rely on a first year quarterback.  Granted, the quarterback will have 11 games under his belt prior to meeting Penn State, however if there is an early season controversy at QB and starter is not decided on early then MSU’s task will be even more difficult. 

Michigan State Defense vs. PSU Offense
National Rankings Category	MSU Actual	MSU Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Scoring Defense	22.08	41		11	38.92	Scoring Offense
Total Offense	355.85	58		14	448.92	Total Offense
Pass Defense	213.38	69		37	243.08	Pass Offense
Passing Efficiency Defense	115.76	37		19	145.35	Pass Efficiency
Rushing Defense	142.46	67		17	205.85	Rushing Offense
Red Zone Defense	.76	19		6	.92	Red Zone Offense
1st Down Defense	17.54	37		18	23.08	1st Down Offense/Game
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense	41.1	74		6	52.0	3rd Down Conversion Pct
4th Down Conversion Pct Defense	17.7	1		88	38.5	4th Down Conversion Pct
SacksGame	2.00	54		4	21.00	Sacks Allowed
Tackles For Loss/Game	6.00	48		4	3.85	Tackles For Loss Allowed

Penn State ran a balanced offense against MSU last year – 35 rushes to 31 passes.  The result was 557 yards.  What is surprising is 419 yards were in the air. MSU’s rush defense was effective, holding Evan Royster to 79 yards rushing.  The defensive secondary on the other hand was consistently burned. 

The good news for MSU is that they only lose three starters on defense: DT Justin Kershaw, DE Brandon Long, and SS Otis Wiley.   The bad news for MSU is that they only lose three starters on defense.  MSU’s secondary had significant rotation last season, so it will be the same crew of DB’s facing Penn State this year that gave up so many yards passing last year.

What is more problematic is the lost of two defensive line starters.  This may put a dent into MSU’s rushing defense against Penn State.  While the D-line was not outstanding, they held their own against Penn State.  MSU needs to be prepared to have two premier starters this season to show any improvement.

Turnovers - Time of Possession - Penalties
National Rankings Category	MSU Actual	MSU Rank		tOSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Turnover Margin	.15	49		25	.54	Turnover Margin
Turnover Gained	24	53		14	16	Turnovers Lost
Turnovers Lost	22	53		58	23	Turnovers Gained
Fumbles Recovered	10	55		49	10	Fumbles Lost
Fumbles Lost	12	77		97	7	Fumbles Recovered
Passes Intercepted	14	49		4	6	Passes had Intercepted
Passed had Intercepted	10	34		26	16	Passes Intercepted
Fewest Penalties/Game	5.08	34		3	3.77	Fewest Penalties/Game
Fewest Yards Penalized/Game	46.15	46		3	31.38	Fewest Yards Penalized/Game
Time of Possession	31:01	33		16	31:44	Time of Possession

Special Teams
National Rankings Category	MSU Actual	MSU Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Punt Returns	9.96	45		15	5.33	Punt Return Defense
Punt Return Defense	9.67	71		39	10.36	Punt Returns
Net Punting	34.37	71		11	37.86	Net Punting
Kickoff Returns	19.73	94		65	21.26	Kickoff Return Defense
Kickoff Return Defense	24.43	68		10	24.54	Kickoff Returns

All of the PSU helmets above seems unusual.  Penn State does not have a special teams coach.  I guess that works out well when compared to Michigan State.  Expect similar numbers from both Penn State and MSU this year.

The Prediction

This is my final preview, and I have Penn State winning the first 11 games.  I’m such a homer - seriously, I am and I know it.  But I have one of those uneasy feelings.   It is really a sickening thing.  Penn State seems so much stronger than Michigan State on paper, but this is a different year.  The game is in East Lansing.  The Land Grant Trophy is on the line. (not really serious about that one)  MSU is seeking revenge for a whooping that Penn State put on them last year.  Mark Dantonio is a very fine coach.  Penn State should be coming off an easy win over Indiana.  Is this the trap game?  

Penn State will navigate the schedule to this point and will be over confident.  Penn State wins in a close game, after not showing up in the first half.

Comments

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All of the PSU helmets above seems unusual. Penn State does not have a special teams coach. I guess that works out well when compared to Michigan State. Expect similar numbers from both Penn State and MSU this year.

Tuesday 06 October 2009, 17:23

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