Preview Game 11 – November 14 – Indiana

Indiana had a typical Hoosier season in 2008 going 3-9 overall and 1-7 in the conference. Their wins came against Western Kentucky, Murray State, and Northwestern.  Penn State easily handled Indiana 34-7, holding Indiana to six first downs and 180 yards of total offense. It should be noted that Penn State has never lost to Indiana.  Additionally, Penn State averages 39 points per game against Indiana. 

Indiana has few talented players left over from 2008.  The Hoosiers leading running back and scorer, Marcus Thigpen, has graduated.  QB/WR Kellen Lewis has been kicked off the team.  Lewis was the team’s second leading rusher.  Kicker Austin Star has graduated.  Star was Indiana’s sole kicker seeing action last season.  He was second in scoring on the team. 

WR Andrew Means entered the NFL draft after his junior year.  Means lead Indiana in reception yards and had one TD on the year. Thigpen, Lewis, Star and Means combined represented over 50% of Indiana’s points in 2009.

Indiana greatest challenge will be finding talent to allow the offense to score.  Little talent existed in the past, and what did is now gone.

Indiana Offense vs. PSU Defense
National Rankings Category	IU Actual	IU Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Scoring Offense	20.50	97		8	14.38	Scoring Defense
Total Offense	348.17	71		8	280.08	Total Defense
Passing Offense	181.25	91		27	186.85	Pass Defense
Passing Efficiency	108.93	98		19	107.79	Pass Efficiency Defense
Rushing Offense	166.92	42		8	93.23	Rushing Defense
Red Zone Offense Pct	.67	117		97	.88	Red Zone Defense
1st Down Offense/Game	17.00	97		9	15.58	1st Down Defense
3rd Down Conversion Pct	27.7	117		15	32.2	3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense
4th Down Conversion Pct	26.1	114		87	54.2	4th Down Conversion Pct Defense
Sacks Allowed/Game	2.33	94		24	2.54	Sacks/Game
Tackles For Loss Allowed	5.92	67		44	46.23	Tackles For Loss/Game

The good news for Indiana is that their entire offensive line returns. Backup OG Kenny Love was the sole senior lost to graduation.  It is at the skill positions that Indiana has to find solutions. The departure of Kellen Lewis, Andrew Means and Marcus Thigpen means that QB Ben Chappell will need to take a leadership role and quickly find passing targets.  It should also be noted that WR Ray Fisher may or may not be playing on offense.  Fisher spent the majority of spring practice as a defensive back.   Fisher led the team in receptions and had 4 TDs in 2008.

Fisher wasn’t the only one moved from offense to defense.  The Hoosiers moved seven players to defense, including RB Trea Burgess to LB, WR Shane Covington to Safety, WR Kyle Dietrick to Safety, OL Milton Owens to DT, OL Jarrod Smith to DT, and WR Collin Taylor to Safety.

Chappell’s likely targets will be Terrance Turner (27 rec), Damarlo Belcher (23 rec), Tandon Doss (12 rec) and redshirt freshman Tyler Adetona. 

Fifth year seniors Demetrious McCray and Bryan Payton are likely starters at running back.  Bryan had 79 carries for 339 yards and two touchdowns in 2008.  McCray had 57 carries for 207 yards and 2 TDs.  The loss of Marcus Thigpen will probably be more of a problem for Indiana than the realignment of receivers.  Thigpen was Indiana’s only legitimate run threat against Penn State last season.  Thigpen busted a run for 57 yards for Indiana’s sole touchdown.  If Thigpen was contained on that one play, then Indiana would have had 66 yards of total rushing on the day, with 2.2 yards per carry. 

Indiana Defense vs. PSU Offense
National Rankings Category	IU Actual	IU Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Scoring Defense	35.25	108		11	38.92	Scoring Offense
Total Offense	423.05	107		14	448.92	Total Offense
Pass Defense	260.50	105		37	243.08	Pass Offense
Passing Efficiency Defense	143.05	106		19	145.35	Pass Efficiency
Rushing Defense	171.67	91		17	205.85	Rushing Offense
Red Zone Defense	.88	97		6	.92	Red Zone Offense
1st Down Defense	23.83	114		18	23.08	1st Down Offense/Game
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense	46.8	107		6	52.0	3rd Down Conversion Pct
4th Down Conversion Pct Defense	72.7	1112		88	38.5	4th Down Conversion Pct
SacksGame	2.50	26		4	21.00	Sacks Allowed
Tackles For Loss/Game	5.83	54		4	3.85	Tackles For Loss Allowed

Coach Bill Lynch is looking for cure for his 108th ranked scoring defense.  Indiana gave up over 35 points per game in 2008.  Given these stats, it really doesn’t matter who is returning on D.  In actually, Indiana is losing starters DT Greg Brown, safeties Joe Kleinsmith and Brandon Mosley.  This isn’t significant attrition. The major adjustment will be seven offensive players moving to defense.
 
By the time Indiana meets Penn State, Indiana will have their best possible defense in place.  More than likely, it will not be as strong as last year’s defense.  Penn State will not have to key on a specific aspect of the Indiana defense since Indiana is weak on rushing and passing defense.  Penn State will simply have to play a balanced game against Indiana to put up 40 or more points.

Turnovers - Time of Possession - Penalties
National Rankings Category	IU Actual	IU Rank		tOSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Turnover Margin	.08	55		25	.54	Turnover Margin
Turnover Gained	22	66		14	16	Turnovers Lost
Turnovers Lost	21	46		58	23	Turnovers Gained
Fumbles Recovered	16	7		49	10	Fumbles Lost
Fumbles Lost	21	46		97	7	Fumbles Recovered
Passes Intercepted	6	113		4	6	Passes had Intercepted
Passed had Intercepted	11	42		26	16	Passes Intercepted
Fewest Penalties/Game	5.33	42		3	3.77	Fewest Penalties/Game
Fewest Yards Penalized/Game	49.25	59		3	31.38	Fewest Yards Penalized/Game
Time of Possession	26:50	115		16	31:44	Time of Possession

Special Teams
National Rankings Category	IU Actual	IU Rank		PSU Rank	PSU Actual	National Rankings Category
Punt Returns	9.00	58		15	5.33	Punt Return Defense
Punt Return Defense	6.30	31		39	10.36	Punt Returns
Net Punting	36.62	29		11	37.86	Net Punting
Kickoff Returns	19.95	88		65	21.26	Kickoff Return Defense
Kickoff Return Defense	24.31	106		10	24.54	Kickoff Returns

Indiana’s special teams lose return man Marcus Thigpen and field goal kicker Austin Star.  Star was the lone kicker to see action for the Hoosier in 2008, so their kicking game is an unknown quantity at this point. 

The one bright spot on Indiana’s team is punter Chris Hagerup.  Hagerup averaged an excellent 42.3 yards per punt.  Unfortunately, the punting unit underperformed leaving Hagerup a net punting stat of 36.62 yards – making him about average in college football. Hagerup will return for the 2009 season.

Prediction

Penn State wins by 40. 

The game is at home. Penn State has never lost to Indiana.  Penn State simply has too much talent for Indiana to handle. 

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