Penn State Football Ohio State - Penn State Summer Doldrums Preview
Written by Jeff Friday, 14 August 2009 16:29
Preview Game 10 – November 7 – Ohio State
Ohio State lost one game in Big Ten play last season. That would be against Penn State at the Horseshoe. This was good enough for Ohio State to share the Big Ten Championship with Penn State. (Go, figure – there is no tie breaker for head-to-head completion or overall regular season records). Ohio State lost two other games in 2008, U$C on the road during the regular season, and a close game against Texas (21-24) in the Fiesta Bowl.
This year’s meeting between the Bucknuts and Lions will more than likely prove to be the biggest game of the season in the Big Ten. tOSU has fairly easy schedule going into game ten. The major competition for tOSU will be U$C in game two of the season. If tOSU survives this rematch with a win, it is quite possible that Penn State and Ohio State will both be 10-0 teams on the season.
Ohio State has two very easy games at home prior to going to State College; Minnesota and New Mexico State. This essentially means that tOSU starters will be well rested for the trip. By Big Ten rules, games played in November may not be played at night. It is likely this game will be a 3:30 or a 4:30 game, with the second half played under the lights before a white-out crowd at Beaver Stadium.
Iowa stands in the way for Penn State, and already mentioned U$C stands in the way for Ohio State to making this game a potential Big Ten Classic.
Ohio State Offense vs. PSU Defense
|
||||||
|
National Rankings
Category
|
tOSU
Actual
|
tOSU
Rank
|
PSU
Rank
|
PSU
Actual
|
National Rankings
Category
|
|
|
Scoring Offense
|
27.62
|
45
|
 |
8
|
14.38
|
Scoring Defense |
|
Total Offense
|
342.69 |
76
|
|
8
|
280.08
|
Total Defense |
|
Passing Offense
|
150.23 |
105
|
|
27
|
186.85
|
Pass Defense |
|
Passing Efficiency
|
137.86 |
30
|
|
19
|
107.79
|
Pass Efficiency Defense |
|
Rushing Offense
|
192.46
|
24 | |
8
|
93.23
|
Rushing Defense |
|
Red Zone Offense Pct
|
.95
|
1 |  |
97
|
.88
|
Red Zone Defense |
|
1st Down Offense/Game
|
17.69
|
83
|
|
9
|
15.58
|
1st Down Defense |
|
3rd Down Conversion Pct
|
43.0
|
34
|
|
15
|
32.2
|
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense |
|
4th Down Conversion Pct
|
44.4
|
68
|
|
87
|
54.2
|
4th Down Conversion Pct Defense |
|
Sacks Allowed/Game
|
2.23
|
83
|
|
24
|
2.54
|
Sacks/Game |
|
Tackles For Loss Allowed
|
6.46
|
89 | |
44
|
46.23
|
Tackles For Loss/Game |
Ohio State reloads each year. Well sort off. If you call matching 2008’s 45th ranked scoring offense reloading. tOSU wasn’t reloading last year, this is their reloading year. tOSU has to replace TE Rory Nichol, OT Alex Boone, OG Steven Rehring, OG Kyle Mitchum, and OG Ben Pearson.
QB Todd Boechman is gone, leaving Terrelle Pryor on his own. From the backfield, tOSU lost team leading rusher Chris Wells and his brother Maurice. At wide receiver, Brain Robiskie and Brian Hartline, who were number one and two respectively in receiving yards, are also gone.
With this amount of attrition, tOSU will have to rely on Terrelle Pryor and Dan Herron for leadership. This means a lot of question marks on offense.
tOSU matches up nicely with Penn State’s defense this year. Penn State’s weakness is in the defensive backfield. Pryor will have to improve significantly and replacements for Hartline and Robiskie have to found to take advantage of Penn State’s defensive backfield. tOSU’s tendency is to run more than pass. Penn State will lock down Dan Herron. Last year, tOSU managed 61 net yards of rushing against State – that was with their number one tailback, Beanie Wells.
In terms of pass offense, Pryor was 16-25-1 against Penn State for 226 yards. Zero TD’s. In addition to Pryor’s interception, he also had a key fumble. tOSU scored only twice in the game on 41 and 36 yard field goals by Aaron Pettrey.
Personally, I am looking forward to seeing Pryor come into a hostile Beaver Stadium experience. He will receive no mercy from the home team crowd. Given that the offensive line is essentially being replaced, it is quite possible that Pryor will be picking turf from his helmet more than once during the game.
Ohio State Defense vs. PSU Offense
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||||||
|
National Rankings
Category
|
tOSU
Actual
|
tOSU
Rank
|
PSU
Rank
|
PSU
Actual
|
National Rankings
Category
|
|
|
Scoring Defense
|
13.92
|
6
|
|
11
|
38.92
|
Scoring Offense |
|
Total Offense
|
293.77
|
14
|
|
14
|
448.92
|
Total Offense |
|
Pass Defense
|
183.54 |
25
|
|
37
|
243.08
|
Pass Offense |
|
Passing Efficiency Defense
|
105.23
|
13
|
|
19
|
145.35
|
Pass Efficiency |
|
Rushing Defense
|
110.83
|
18
|
|
17
|
205.85
|
Rushing Offense |
|
Red Zone Defense
|
.79
|
37
|
|
6
|
.92
|
Red Zone Offense |
|
1st Down Defense
|
17.85
|
47
|
|
18
|
23.08
|
1st Down Offense/Game |
|
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense
|
35.3
|
31
|
|
6
|
52.0
|
3rd Down Conversion Pct |
|
4th Down Conversion Pct Defense
|
61.1
|
101
|
|
88
|
38.5
|
4th Down Conversion Pct |
|
SacksGame
|
2.08
|
50
|
|
4
|
21.00
|
Sacks Allowed |
|
Tackles For Loss/Game
|
5.58
|
52
|
|
4
|
3.85
|
Tackles For Loss Allowed |
Gone from tOSU’s defense are:
CB Malcolm Jenkins
CB Donald Washington
CB Shaun Lane
LB James Laurinaitis
LB Marcus Freeman
DE Nader Abdallah
DE Curtis Terry
Laurinaitis and Freeman were the Bucknuts leading tacklers in 2008. Much of the defensive back field needs to be rebuilt, while the defensive line is fairly stable. Ohio States knows how to play defense, and this is one area that they will simply reload. The greatest loss on defense is probably Malcolm Jenkins. Second to Jenkins is pile jumper James Laurinaitis.
While Penn State is replacing their three top receivers, the 2009 receiving corps should be well entrenched by the tenth game of the season. The same is true with tOSU’s defensive backfield. More than likely, the Penn State offensive matchup against tOSU will be rather similar to last year. Expect a fall off in tOSU’s secondary and in PSU’s passing game. Penn State will have to win this game in the trenches with a strong running game.
Turnovers - Time of Possession - Penalties
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||||||
|
National Rankings
Category
|
tOSU
Actual
|
NU
Rank
|
tOSU
Rank
|
PSU
Actual
|
National Rankings
Category
|
|
| Turnover Margin |
1.23
|
6
|
|
25
|
.54 | Turnover Margin |
|
Turnover Gained
|
29
|
20
|
|
14
|
16 | Turnovers Lost |
|
Turnovers Lost
|
13
|
4
|
|
58
|
23 | Turnovers Gained |
|
Fumbles Recovered
|
14
|
15
|
|
49
|
10
|
Fumbles Lost |
|
Fumbles Lost
|
7
|
18
|
|
97
|
7 | Fumbles Recovered |
|
Passes Intercepted
|
15 | 39 | |
4 | 6 | Passes had Intercepted |
|
Passed had Intercepted
|
6
|
4
|
|
26
|
16 | Passes Intercepted |
|
Fewest Penalties/Game
|
5.23
|
38
|
|
3
|
3.77 | Fewest Penalties/Game |
|
Fewest Yards Penalized/Game
|
43.62
|
33
|
|
3
|
31.38 | Fewest Yards Penalized/Game |
|
Time of Possession
|
31:42
|
18
|
|
16
|
31:44
|
Time of Possession |
The other two areas that Penn State was better in head-to-head game play were in fewest penalties and fumbles lost. PSU had zero penalties to tOSU’s 4 for 48 yards. PSU also didn’t fumble and we can vividly recall Pryor fumbling the game away for tOSU.
With that said, tOSU is a well coached team and makes few mistakes. In this year’s matchup, the team that makes the fewest mistakes will win.
Special Teams
|
||||||
|
National Rankings
Category
|
tOSU
Actual
|
tOSU
Rank
|
PSU
Rank
|
PSU
Actual
|
National Rankings
Category
|
|
|
Punt Returns
|
13.00
|
12
|
|
15
|
5.33
|
Punt Return Defense |
|
Punt Return Defense
|
4.13 |
5
|
|
39
|
10.36
|
Punt Returns |
|
Net Punting
|
37.98
|
9
|
|
11
|
37.86
|
Net Punting |
|
Kickoff Returns
|
19.18
|
108
|
|
65
|
21.26
|
Kickoff Return Defense |
|
Kickoff Return Defense
|
17.50
|
4
|
|
10
|
24.54
|
Kickoff Returns |
tOSU is great in punt and punt return special teams. Their number one punt returner, Ray Small returns and seems to be out of Coach Tressel’s dog house. Small averaged 15.2 yards per return on 24 returns last year. Penn State’s strategy to combat that was to shutdown Small. Small had the sole punt return against Penn State for a total of ZERO yards. PSU Punter Jeremy Boone had an excellent day on four punts, averaging 43.5 yards per punt with three inside the 20 and only one touchback.
Penn State will have to continue their excellent special teams play against tOSU in this season’s game. In a close game, special teams may be the key difference between winning and losing.
Timid Prediction
This game is so close in a number of ways. tOSU plays great defense. PSU has new receivers, but tOSU has a new defensive backfield. PSU also has a new defensive backfield. tOSU is replacing their number one and two receivers. As much as I hate to do this, I am going to hang my hopes on the quarterback. Daryll Clark is mature, a leader, and talented. Pryor is immature, a follower, and talented. Pryor is easily goaded and distracted. Combine this with 110,000+ hostile Penn State fans in Beaver Stadium, Pryor will again have his head in hands at the end of the game. Penn State wins.
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